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Showing posts from September, 2020

Wednesday - Presidential Debate Sh*t Show

Shares on Wall street premarket turned to gains following the better than expected ADP employment rate. US companies added 749k payrolls. Treasury yield was lower after the embarrassing presidential debate. EU will enforce big tech companies to share data with smaller competitors through Digital Service Act. JPMorgan admitted to the money laundering allegations and to pay $920 million in fine. Shell cut 9000 jobs to move to low-carbon energy (or to save itself in this volatile market). Undecided voters think Trump is a bully and Biden better than expected.

Tuesday - The Reality

Yesterday's outbreak of optimism is fading away because chances of fiscal stimulus are getting lower while Covid cases are on the rise (over 1 million death around the world). Fourth quarter growth however could be a positive driver for the market. US treasury yields slipped due to first Trump/Biden presidential debate.  Beyond Burger will tripple it's availability at Walmart. Nokia signs 5G deal with BT. Amazon's prime day is set on Oct 13th/14th.  Keep smiling and stay charitable. 

Monday - Stock market ain't the economy

  Major United States indexes moved higher on Monday in premarket trade, as the Dow Jones hovered around 370 points in the green and the Nasdaq 100 gained over 200 points. Tesla Inc. added over 4% before the opening bell on news of its deal with Piedmont Lithium. Meanwhile, Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. dropped over 35% after its coronavirus vaccine trial was put on hold. Uber won its legal fight to continue operating in London on Monday. The dollar hovered near a two-month peak against a basket of currencies on Monday, as doubts about recovery persisted ahead of a barrage of economic data and political developments in the United States. The euro traded 0.39% higher against the dollar and went for 1.16742 at 08:36 am ET. It's always important to remember that the stock market is not the economy. Stocks are meant to reflect the future value of a given company's stock, not the state of Main Street today. You don't have a hair salon or a restaurant trading on the Nasdaq." S...

Last week in 2 minutes

  This month has been volatile and it could go on for a while. Giant Tech companies are driving the stock market higher and creating a parallel universe right beside the economy which is  feeling the impacts on the middle class and small businesses.  Gold, silver and oil were slightly under pressure. USD contiues to smoothoy devalue. Crypto recapped nicely by end of the week. US farmers had their 3rd bail out and airlines are waiting in the line behind them for their second. US banks under $2 trillion scrutiny for money laundry lost momentum.  Federal reserve is targeting more than 2% inflation. Unemployment rates, raise in covid cases and the earning results didn't affect tech stocks.  TikTok went to Oracle. Snowflake and Unity are yet to fall.  Tesla's hyped battery resulted in a slight sell off. Microsoft is planning to crush Sony by purchasing ZeniMax Media. Nvidia bought ARM. Walmart part...

Friday - Rollercoaster

  DOW gained 300 points yesterday. Everything was mainly unchanged except for Crypto which saw a good gain through algorithmic buyings, since the volume was low. Home sale data was better than expected. Although another 870k people applied for unemployment, but we are not that far from all time highs, however, 50 day MA failed to halt the retreat in US benchmarks and now investors are eying 200 MA. Democrats are proposing $2.4 trillion stimulus to white house and the republican senate. Some economists doubt more funding for this year.  Trump in his speech mentioned that the vaccine will be out earlier than expected. Maybe Oct? Amazon announced its new gaming service, Luna Controller. Spotify patterned with Chernin Entertainment to adapt podcasts streamed on its platform for film and TV. Deliveroo, a UK based food delivery startup that is backed by Amazon, is exploring an IPO by 2021. ChargePoint Inc., an electric charging point network, announced its initial public offering pl...

Thursday - Patience with the Hangover

Like any hangover, this market needs some patience. More corrections are needed at this stage. The Fed warned more stimulus is needed to push US equities and therefore we experienced 8 weeks low; erasing earlier gains and ending an advance that began on Tuesday. Jobless claims comes more than expected. This time of the month is week and I think Fed will have to jump in again which we'll see the bullish trend. Apple Inc dropped more than 4% in the afternoon, dragging the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ Composite along with it. Tech-heavy Nasdaq is down nearly 10% for the month. Dollar is now testing resistance at its 50-day moving average as investors seek a haven from the recent volatility in risk assets. A close above the key level could point the way toward further gains, especially in the options market. Johnson & Johnson begins the biggest U.S. trial of a one-shot Covid-19 vaccine as global deaths close in on 1 million. TikTok faces a deadline this wee...

Wednesday - Dip Buying

Futures and stocks rally on dip buying. Oil resumed decline due to restriction concerns and increase in Covid19 cases. Crypto Index is up about 66% in 2020, exceeding gold’s jump of more than 20%. Although Gold had a fantastic run but it has lost steam lately. There was so much hype on Tesla's battery day, even Elon tried to play it down before the event. Later Musk promised deliveries in 2020 would be up by 30% and plans to make its own large battery cells to make $25,000 full self-driving car by 2023. Walmart partnered with drone services to start delivering COVID-19 test kits. U.S.-China relations remain a risk for markets, with Trump accusing the country of "allowing flights to leave China and infect the world.” Although Nike's sale didn't grow, it returned to profit and the stock rallied. Revenue was far better than expected and Wall street was bracing for lower sales. The social optimisems soon gave way to pessimism, as Saudi economic reforms stalled, while youth...

Tuesday - Mixed Markets

Tesla usually has a pull back every 6 to 9 month. If the battery reports are anything but great, then it could be the trigger today. Microsoft has plans to acquire video game giants Bethesda's parent company ZeniMax Media for $7.5 billion, to crush Sony. Nvidia buying ARM from SoftBank could make them the most important chip player of the decade, challenging Intel and AMD. Does it worth $40 billion? DOW went down about 900 points at some point yesterday. Crude fell about 4%. But there was a rebound by the end of the day. Although I agree with other blogs that we might be in a bearish situation, but I think when everyone thinks we are bearish it's time for a bullish trend. That's why I believe today the market will finish mixed. Since banks are going to create more inflation in this environment, gold and silver are a buy. After the money laundry news, now there are secret files floating around saying North Korea has been laundering money through American banks. The fourth qu...

Monday - No Fear

The virus has begun spreading among the old again. Banks fall under presure because more than $2 trillion worth of transactions were flagged as possible money laundering. Pompeo announces snapback sacrions on Iran while other nations question it after US exited the nuclear accord. Bloomberg Adam Haigh reported "The latest CFTC data, released Friday, showed how speculative positioning in Nasdaq e-mini futures has climbed to the most bearish level since 2008". The Dollar weakening seems to be going on for a while since the Fed announced that they will be exceeding the 2% inflation target. However, the trends in the ten year yield shows no fear in investing money into the stock market. Although the economy is in the worst shape in the past decade, and the pressure is going to be on the middle-class, the stock market is near all time highs and probably will surpass that in Oct. Airlines got a $25 billion bail out in the first round and the second round seems to be coming soon. Th...

Sunday - Volatile Sep

The market doesn't always go up smoothly. This month has been volatile and it could go on for a while. Main US indexes finished slightly lower on Fri and dollar was about flat. Crude and crypto were a bit under pressure.  US Farmers had their third bail out ($14 billion). The funny thing about it is that China has major farm lands in US; so much for the China deal! As long as federal reserve keeps printing, this paradigm will get applied to other industries too; i.e. airlines. Trump blesses Oracle's TikTok, leaving Microsoft a looser. Snowflake IPO doubled this week; for those who could get on the initial deal though, not us. I think we should wait a bit for SNOW to drop before riding it. Similar case for Unity Software Inc (U).  Biden's chances for a 2021 presidency is growing; currently ahead of the Donald. Saudi building the city of future, the Neom.  Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and stay charitable.