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Showing posts from April, 2021

Monday - Is an inverse correction inevitable this year?

 Shares in the major US stock market are trading lower this morning. The main reason is the mixed feeling that Q1 results are posting. On one hand we can see a lot of growth compared to last year, but if we focus on the overall Q1 only, a lot of companies weren't able to continue the momentum they got last year, specially in tech. The divergence between Nasdaq and DOJ has become a norm, which is historically rare, except for the years associated with the internet bubble. Strong economical data is flashing a sell signal because historical data shows that all time highs in manufacturing and Services PMI stalls the market for 3 to 6 months. Another factor is the the fact that the stock market is priced for perfection; S&P's forward price-to-earnings ratio is at its highest since the 90s. Finally seasonal sell effect is around the corner while May is approaching.  Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Friday - What is the impact of jobless claim a year from now?

 Shares on the US stock market are pointing to a positive open this morning after moving around the flat line the whole night. This is the continuation of yesterday's record highs in day gain by DOJ based of better than expected jobless claims and consumer's spending. Jobless claims started off with nearly 7 million in Apr 2020, and still about 19 million people are collecting jobless benefits. With these numbers and the terrible economy, it seems 576000 new claims means the situation is in a recovery. However, the long term impacts of such employments is still unknown. Oxford released a research that found that the rate of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis or blood clots in Pfizer and Moderna is similar to AstraZeneca vaccine; 4 in 1 million vs 5 in a million respectively. This is another proof that the global concerns around AstraZeneca was more political than scientific. Read more on this here .

Thursday - Is Bitcoin going to be the most valuable currency?

US Stock market is pointing to a higher open this morning with the earning season having a positive outlook. Business inventories and jobless claims are other points to watch today. Bitcoin is near all time high after Coinbase went public yesterday. A majority of the investors are shamed to remain poor by speculating a bubble in the crypto world, while Bitcoin has become the 5th largest currency, surpassing the British Pound. Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Wednesday - How will the Q1 results impact the market?

 Stock market is mostly unchanged today after a negative reaction earlier this week to the Q1 reports which are set to come out. Some sectors are recovering from the last year's dip such as the finance. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs reported impressive Q1 results today. Coinbase, cryptocurrency exchange, is set to join Nasdaq today. Bitcoin reached $63000 USD after this news. Stock market asset managers are mostly not in favor of cryptocurrecies or they think there is a bubble. Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Monday - What Does Warren Buffet's DotCom Indicator Predicts' Today?

 Stocks set to fall after record highs on Fri. DOJ is 100 points lower this morning due to Biden's infrastructure discussions later today. Also early earning news are expected to flow in for the first quarter this week. Uber's delivery recovery is faster than expected to a level that they don't have enough drivers. Microsoft announced Nuance acquisition for $19.7 billion, including Nuance's debt. This will increase healthcare provider space by 100%; in addressable market.  Warren Buffet's indicator, regarding the value of the country's publicly traded stocks divide by its gross national products, is alarming. This ratio was very high in the late 90's which predicted the DotCom bubble. Now it's high again making people like Elon Musk giving it a spotlight on twitter. Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Friday - How is the promising economical growth impacting the stock market?

 Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open this morning. DOJ is slightly slightly higher and Nasdaq is cautiously lower; around 0.2%. While the airline industry tanked last year due to travel limitation, they have been pushing higher since the 4th quarter. However, the levels are yet to reach pre-pandemic. This suggests a long term investment opportunity. I wrote on Tue about the impact of a fall in the economy on the stock market's prospects. But what will happen when the economy bursts with flying colors? Obviously if you consider the current situation, you can see how the economy is reverting back. Although the stock market didn't stay in the dips like the economy for a long time, the reversal in the economical situation should have an impact. I believe the impact could be negative, but a short term one. Because, when the economy begins to have positive prospects ahead of it, it could be a bull situation for the market too. Consider this, the stimulus checks that the gover...

Tuesday - Is the stock market growth a never ending trend?

 Stocks on Wall Street fell in the pre-market after yesterday's record highs in DOJ and S&P. Investors are awaiting the job report which is due later today. Biden is set to announce a shift in the vaccination deadline by making everyone in the US eligible to be vaccinated by Apr 19th. Although Amazon was on track for growing it's presence in the digital ad market in the US, the pandemic has accelerated that. They increased their share from 7.8% in 2019 to 10.3% in 2020 and predicting 12.8 by 2023. Despite the fact that over 533 million Facebook users were hacked ver the weekend (users phone numbers, names, locations and email addresses were exposed), but the stock price hit record high on Mon. Recently I have noticed the fact that when the economy is not n a good situation it will eventually become a positive effect for the stock market. Because, such situation begs for a bright future and the stock market loves bragging on a positive prospect. The challenge however, is tha...

Monday - Market is going to react positively to the new jobs added

 Stock futures are pointing at a solid positive open this morning. This is the first trading after the news of adding 916k jobs, mostly to the hospitality sections, so it's the first chance investors will have to react to it. Stocks have been expected to have a much bigger correction this but they are still going up, with S&P hitting records highs every once in a while. The reason is  simply because the earnings have been high; not for small businesses obviously but for the giants who have been dictating the direction of the market. Keep smiling and stay charitable. 

Thursday - Elon Musk Keeps Hyping Its Investment On DogeCoin

 Stock futures and NASDAQ are higher this morning based on Biden's $2.3 trillion package aiming at infrastructure and jobs. However, the jobless claims increased unexpectedly to 719000; only for the last week of Mar. Pfizer and BioNTech showed high efficacy against Covid for six month. The vaccines prevented the contagion by 91.3%, and 100% effective in sever cases. Apple has reached a deal with Tesla to power up its Northern California farm with solar panels.  DogeCoin surged 20% after Elon Musk tweeted about SpaceX putting a literal coin on the moon. Keep smiling and stay charitable.