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Showing posts from November, 2020

Monday - DJI has always been bullish in long term

 Futures and indexes looks to be mixed this morning, with no spectacular news weighing on either side. Firs available doses of vaccine will potentially be out in mid Dec for high vulnerability groups. The wide spread of vaccine could be rolled out in Apr.  Apple was fined in Italy for unfair advertisement of iPhone's water resistance because apple has failed to explain what will happen to the phone in a normal situations and has over estimating the resistance in their ads.

Friday - Black Friday's consumer confidence is on decline

 Futures are looking positive this morning. However, Bitcoin had a 10% correction over thanksgiving. The most valuable industry of this decade could be the electric car industry. With Tesla being the front runner, a lot of Chinese and German car makers could be looking at a 10x bubble, soon. Facebook's digital currency backed by USD, Liba, could be coming in Jan 2021. The pandemic has doubled the food delivery culture which is a massive news for Uber and Lyft. SalesForce in talks to buy Slack. Disney will lay off more than expected workers from their theme park.  Earlier Black-Friday's estimates created an expectation of 9% increase in consumer expenditure, however, the new data shows people won't be spending that much, specially with the new social restrictions in play.

Wednesday - Happy Thanksgiving! An evolution from harvest celebration to the joy of stock market highs

 Stock futures and Dollar valuation seems to be untouched, while jobless claims rose to 778k. Exxon cuts oil price outlook for the next decade.  Dow Jones did hit record high yesterday, surpassing 30,000 points. This record comes just 4 years after it hit 20,0000 and 14 years after it met 10,000 points. While Bitcoin is at record highs, it's still suggested that you must keep at least 1 to 5 percent of your investment on this cryptocurrency.  Happy thanks giving. While every year people gather around the table and talk politics and economy, this year families might stay apart, at least in some regions. It's a good reminder however that at around the same time in 1999 tech bubble geared up, in 2017 cryptocurrencies got shoot to the moon, in 2014 oil crashed and Dubai defaulted in 2009; are some highs and lows of previous thanksgiving discussions. Although we are at record highs in regards to Dow Jones, Bitcoin, electric cars and lots of tech companies, but, the after math ...

Tuesday - Trump's administration's transition commenced by moving their mAss from Dow Jones to hit a record high

 Stock futures are looking higher today. Yesterday, stock market started a rally after Trump's administration announced their official transition's commencement. But more importantly, Biden nominated former Fed chair Janet Yellen to be the Treasury Secretary which the market enjoyed weighing on her competence. Bitcoin is still on the rise, surpassing $19,000 for the first time since 2017, with the increase in Covid cases. Google is in talk to buy India's ShareChat for $1 billion. Also, Google LLC's project to connect Europe and India through fiber-optic network got a boost to compete with FB, MS and Amazon. Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Monday - Markets are near all time high. Are you nervous?

 Stock futures are higher this morning because of the continuous good news on vaccine; this time from Oxford's AstraZeneca. Bitcoin however continues to surge based on the increase in the number of Covid cases. S&P 500 price per earning ratio is above 5 year and 10 year averages, however, gains are usually achieved when valuation seems to be high.  Thanksgiving with limited traveling is another blow to the airline industry and Oil. But, Airbnb is going public with IPO; reducing cost with employee working from home and with the hope that people will rush into this sector in near future. This is while they have logged $696.9 million loss for the first three quarters of this year. Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Friday - Stimulus package is on a roller coaster before thanksgiving

 Dow futures and treasury yields are lower today because Treasury Secretary has instructed the Federal Reserve to close emergency lending facilities and to return the unused money back. Tech industry is mixed this morning as hope of unleashing restrictions, due to vaccine effectiveness reports, could keep the light of business on. Home sales are exceeding expectations to the level of 2007, which reminds me of the previous recession. With the Trump's administration foreign policy blow out, and the pandemic on top of it, perhaps the depression is yet to begin in 2021. After Bitcoin hits record highs, Digital Asset Investment Management launched the first retirement plan based on Bitcoin.

Thursday - Vaccines's efficacy impact on the market is shadowed by the rise in number of cases and unemployment

 US stock futures are mostly lower this morning, with NSDAQ being nearly 1% in the red zone. Number of covid cases are rising to more than 159k per day. What was unexpected was an increase in the new unemployment cases, reaching 742k. Also the new restrictions from NY in person schooling is impacting the market. With current efficacy rates announced by major vaccine providers, ending this pandemic is on the horizon, however, without a stimulus, the impact of economical recovery will not be sustainable for many business. Apple reached a $113 million agreement as a penalty for slowing down their older iPhones to mask battery issues and sell new phones. Google will launch Plex Account as an online banking addendum to their G-Pay in 2021. This was mainly in partnership with Citibank and Federal Credit Union. Facebook has released an experimental app called E.gg where users can create web pages that lets you express your favorite film, music, books and etc. Let me know what you think. K...

Wednesday - Undermined retail earnings

 Dow Jones futures are up more than 150 points today and Bitcoin touched the 2017 record high of $18k. Powel reminded that the Fed will remain supportive of the economy as log as it takes, specially with keeping the rates near zero. This was due to the admittance of faster than expected recovery in the market, and noticing that the improvement is slowing down.  Apple announced that they will drop the charges from 30% to 15% for small-business-applications -  making less than $1 million per year in apple store - starting Jan 1st.  Vaccine news is becoming the usual thing these days with Pfizer announcing the effectiveness of its vaccine being 95%. Although the release of a vaccine is on a short term horizon, but some investors such as SoftBank's CEO have doubled their liquidations to over $80 billion, predicting a down turn next year.

Tuesday - Will Dow Jones set a record high today?

Yesterday Dow Jones reached closer to its all time high of 30,000. While Morgan Stanley raised their bars for S&P to 3,900 in 2021, predicting earning growth as the key factor, historical data shows that next year could experience a sizable pull back. Tesla is up 13% in the premarket as it sets to join S&P500. Walmart reported stronger than expected earning due to their online sale and the higher from-home spending. Shopify got into a deal with Alipay and Amazon entered the pharmacy business.  Big pharama shares are going higher after Buffet disclosed investment on companies working on Covid vaccine (AbbVie,  Bristol-Myers, Merck and Pfizer) . Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Monday - Markets react to Moderna's effective vaccine news

Dow Jones is surging today with the news on  Moderna vaccine being 94.5% effective. Dr. Fauci said a vaccine could be ready by end of Dec for high-risk categories. Joe Biden's advisors say they oppose a national lockdown and prefer a targeted measure.  Cruse, airlines and oil industries surged further with the new vaccine news.  Home Depot got into agreement to acquire HD Supply for $8 billion in cash.  AMC is on a verge of bankruptcy with theaters being massively hit by the pandemic and the era of theater-movie-watching evolving to Netflix and like. They reported $1 billion loss in the third quarter and started to offer another 20million shares in hope of extending the survival. Shopify has strengthened its grounds once more by launching Fulfillment Network; an interesting rival to same day delivery system of Amazon.  Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Friday - The market's holiday season could be bullish with the Covid cases on the rise

US and European futures look higher this morning as the number of Covid cases are on the rise and the stimulus package is becoming an undeniable reality to sustain the economy world wide. The impact of the good news on a possible vaccine could only be a short term relief, as the spread of the virus could be devastating in the next few months. While some investors are worried that the market is at record highs and recently the lower lows were tested, specially in the tech industry, but this era can be viewed as a support level down the road. Just like the situation we had between 2008 and 2013; the market kept climbing higher. Shares of the Chinese electric car maker, Xpeng, is surging following its earning reports with a robust delivery.  Google will start charging for cloud photo and video storage, a service that's currently free, starting from next year and it could have a revenue of about 3 billion. This is a similar move to their Gmail service charging $1.99/mon for keeping old...

Thursday - Real unemployment rates are the permanent ones

 Stock futures are mostly lower in all the sectors today. Unemployment rate was generally lower this week, however permanent job losses are growing in the US.  The fluctuations in NASDAQ since the semi-successful vaccine was announced shows that people have shifted over to value stocks from tech investment. But it seems that shift was a bit too aggressive. FB could be hurt under Biden's presidancy because his cmapaign spokesman said "FB is shredding the fabrics of our democracy". If amazon won't prevail under European commission anti-trust charges it could be finned 10% of its revenue.  Airline industry is getting another attention from the pandemic recovery by chipping in for Vaccine deliver, when it was ready. Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Wednesday - Market reacts to Covid's vaccine hope vs. record breaking new cases

 Stock futures are higher today, even in tech industry; after yesterday's 3% drop in NASDAQ. Reports are focusing back on the higher and record breaking Covid cases, specially in the US and Germany. Oil is still going a bit more higher today however the demand is still in the lower zone. The decrease in demand is nothing like Mar, since China is still heavily buying it. Watch out for OPEC's monthly report today. Apple unveiled new MacBooks with an in house built M1 chip which is more efficient and has higher performance compared to ??? (they threw a lot of numbers like 3x faster than the best selling rival laptop, but which laptop is that?! And what configuration have they compared it with!!) Lyft shares jumped higher once they provided their food delivery road map which could offset the hit they took from the pandemic.  Biden's presidency could face a shift in the international relations. For instance, Russia, China and UK could be more challenged.  Iran's nuclear deal...

Tuesday - Covid is taking away the tech industry's bubble it created in 2020 with effective vaccine news

Half of yesterday's massive gains during the day were lost by end of the day. Today's futures are mixed with tech industry under pressure. However, Oil, airlines, casinos and cruise industry are finding momentum under the sudden good news on effective Covid vaccine. Although the vaccine is not here yet but the results provides a tentative roadmap to a lot of businesses which is bullish for those industries. On the other hand, during this pandemic tech industry was the sole leader in the market even pulling up major indexes while unemployment and the economy were in recession.  Indeed we are on a path to eventually recover from this pandemic, but I think the tech industry will remain to be the best long term investment. And in fact, situations like this are a good opportunity to invest in. Here are some suggestions out of the ordinary tech stocks that you can have a look and decide if it's a good time for you to ride them. I think they will all gonna be in a much better posi...

Monday - Biden's presidency effect on the market got an additional boost from effective Covid vaccine news

 The former vice-president is officially the president now (maybe not to the Donald, though). Stock future soared as expected based on this news. Oil and airline stocks are rocketing higher, however, precious metals and Zoom are under pressure due to the massive news about Pfizer Inc. reporting more than 90% effectiveness in their vaccine study. Novavax has also got FDA approval for a fast track vaccine.  

Friday - The election's cloud is getting clear and investors are back to the reality

 Yesterday, NASDAQ, S&P and DOJ took another 2% gain, while on weekly basis that was more than 9% for NASDAQ. Surge in asset prices, record breaking Covid cases and the prolonged election are putting a pause on the soaring market today. Georgia's vote count is nearly finished and Biden is leading there. While his presidency is becoming a reality, Oil took a hit by 2.5%. Although US economy and employment are looking better compared to the last few months, but we are still way behind the beginning of the year. And that was why the Feds kept the interest rate at near zero. This month will be massive for gaming, with the work from home theme and the lock downs. Two of my best gaming companies to invest in, and even a long term one are Zynga and Activision Blizzard. Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Thursday - Biden's presidency and republican senate is bullish for the markets

 US stock market rose parabolically yesterday (NASDAQ soared 3.8%, best session since Apr) as the signs of a Biden presidency with a Republican senate became more evident. The reason why investors are enjoying this combination is because foreign policies and negotiations with China will get a major chance under Biden. Although we might get a smaller stimulus package under him, but that is less significant. Also, a Republican senate means Biden may not be able to tighten the regulations and increase taxes on corporations. Bitcoin is up by 5%, however banks and treasury yield tumbled because there would be no change in spending. We expect no major monetary policy changes when Federal Reserve will announce their decision at 2pm. US recorded over 80k job cuts in Oct which was 32% lower compared to Sep and the lowest in seven month.  Apple is aiming to drop Intel from its MacBook line and replace them with its in house built CPU by 2022.  Biden is very close to claim the presi...

Wednesday - Election day turned into election month!

As the presidential election results were towards Biden last night, stock futures dropped but since this morning they are back at where they were as Trump is more likely to win. The results are postponed until all the in-main votes are counted, including Pennsylvania.  As of Wednesday morning, Biden had 238 electoral votes and Trump had 213. Candidates require 270 electoral votes to win. European stocks as well as Bitcoin took a hit after Trump claimed a false victory and after hour fraud; increasing uncertainty.  Based on the election results so far Calcifornia voters embraced Uber and Lyft to be considered as independant ontractors, meaning that they don't need to hire drivers. Uber is up 13% in the pre-market. Also, voters in 5 states ( Arizona, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota ) have said yes to legalization of marijuana.  States called for Trump: Ky., W. Va., S.C., Ala., Miss., Tenn., Okla., Ark., Ind., N.D., S.D., Wyo., La., Neb. (4 of 5 electoral ...

Tuesday - Election Day!

 It's election day and stock futures are pointing to a higher open as investors are betting against a backdrop; whomever wins this rally. Joe Biden admitted yesterday that the stock market will continue to go up in a long run, no matter which party wins the election. Sony Music Entertainment partnered with TikTok to make all its songs available on the platform. TradeDesk announced the deployment of unified ID 2.0. This is an internet ID that assists with relevant advertising while keeping the user's preference and privacy at the forefront. This is an upgrade to third party cookies. 

Monday - One day before the election

 Today is a big day for investors because its election week and Fed's decision on the rates are coming up. Besides those, uprising payrolls have contributed to futures being higher today. However, Oil is hugely under pressure due to the lack of demand which is caused by an increase in the number of Covid cases across the globe.  Bill Gates has shown positive concern over a need for a stimulus to fight the pandemic. Stimulus  will help the development, testing and later distributing the vaccine across the world. TiKTok's threat became real this week because you find a lot of people talking about election and not just persuading people to go out and vote, but the narrative seemed to be aimed against Joe Biden. The massive youngester base within this app makes this propaganda scary and gives an unfair platform to Donald Trump, increasing is chances of winning.