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Showing posts from October, 2020

Friday - Higher number of Covid cases has interrupted FAANG, driving the market

Stock futures are pointing to a lower open today to give away some of its gain from yesterday's rally. Personal spending in the US rose in Sep by 1.4% while EU's unemployment rates reached 8.3%. Although we are in the middle of a pandemic and a recession, S&P is up, 2.5% higher year to date. The main reason for that is the FAANG (FB, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google). Apple's revenue is up, however sale misses expectations. Netflix increased its membership price in US. Shopify announced partnership with TikTok which can bring a big young customer base on board. Election day is 4 days away and Walmart has removed guns from certain locations due to an unrest.  Have a nice weekend. Keep smiling and stay charitable. 

Thursday - Is there really going to be another stimulus any time soon?

Today equities are finding some support with a small reversal since yesterday's sell off. S&P closed 3.5% in the red zone. Other markets slipped too, including Oil, Gold and Bitcoin. The main reason for the panic was due to higher number of covid cases across the glob, with Europe planning on another shut down. European shares rise today ahead of the Central Bank conference with a hope of a stimulus, after hitting a 5 month low yesterday. Bureau of economic growth will publish the first estimate of the third quarter growth, and the historical figures can be another turning point in the market today. This is while the jobless claims this week is expected to be slightly lower. Marvel Tech is planning to acquire Inphi Corp, that specializes in semiconductor pieces, for $10 billion. After a 25% jump in Pinterest's shares last week, they are another 30% up today in the pre-market based of their revenue boom from advertising. Investors are buying the dips as if they are sure that...

Wednesday - Earning reports are higher this month, so are Covid cases

 Record highs in Covid cases across the glob has driven the Oil prices lower by 5% in the pre-market. Stock futures as well as Gold are in reds. Bitcoin however reach its 52 weeks high. Although Microsoft reported yet another revenue climb, the 13th one in a row, mainly because of surge in work from home and online services such as Azure, but their pre-market shares slipped lower. An American non-profit org. has an unbiased test report on Tesla's self-driving capability and it's not good.  According to this report, self-driving suite worked inconsistently, specially Auto-park self-parking system. Also, they emphasized on the fact that, this system requires significant driver's attention to reduce safety risks. There is a similar time that I haven't seen anyone comparing this election with it. I'm talking about the second round of George Bush's election in 2004. The election became messy and resulted in a recount of votes in Florida. Although Bush won that electi...

Tuesday - What will the investors do after they saw a nose dive yesterday?

Yesterday major indexes dropped close to 2% at some point which was mainly due to the increased number of Covid cases. Although the earning news is still impressing but the only thing that this market needs is a stimulus which we may not see until after the election after the senators parted from Washington yesterday. Although the economy doesn't look good and the market has been shady over the past weeks, but people have been saving money too because they were working from home. And that could be extremely bullish for the holiday culture of spending.  AMD agreed to buy Xilinx for $35 billion which is putting even more pressure on Intel. For the first time, yesterday I saw a news weighing on Trump winning the election and its after math on the market. It seems with what happened yesterday in the market, Trump has resurrected again, just like what happened 4 years ago. Keep smiling and stay charitable. 

Monday - No News Can Impress The Investors Until There is an Stimulus Package

 Due to Covid19's uncertainty and increase in the number of impacted individuals, precious metals, oil and futures are lower today. We are 8 days away from the election and the senate is yet to pass a stimulus package.  While the west is failing to control the contamination and spread of covid, China is testing the entire city of Xinjing because one person tested positive. Facebook announced the launch of cloud based stream games, available on Android and the web version of their app. Russia is preparing for the test launch of their digital currency in 2021. Airbnb brought in Jony Ive who recently resigned from Apples' chief design officer. Intel is under a serous pressure right now, fighting for being relevant in 2021. Borat's movie was out this week and it was a massive campagn against Trump and his administration. The Rudy Giuliani scene was probably the biggest prank I've ever seen due to its impact. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Friday - Investors are Holding Back Even on Good Earning News

We are getting closer to the Oct end and corporate earning are out and impressive. However, investors are not impressed and eagerly holding back for the stimulus package. Congress has moved to the next phase in the stimulus talks, and awaiting the "technical language" fixture.  According to Yahoo Finance: " The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet inched up to a record $7.18 trillion as of Wednesday, with all signs pointing to further growth in the central bank’s portfolio. The Fed’s outright holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities added about $25 billion to $6.56 trillion over the last week. Concerns over a slowing economic recovery have pushed the Fed to open the possibility of further ramping up its asset purchases or changing the targets of its asset purchases. ". Remdesivir gets FDA approval and therefore Gilead's stocks surged. Goldman Sachs will pay a foreign bribery penalty and has plead guilty for the first time. Google's monopoly laws...

Thursday - Fed's Indefinite Support for The Stock Market

 Major stock markets trended lower, as the investors are awaiting third quarter earning batches and following the ups and downs of the last stimulus package of 2020. Jobless claims are expected to be lower this week, however the role of a stimulus in preventing the economy from a free fall is inevitable, according to Fed's policy makers. Although business have been lost and people are loosing jobs/income but consumer spending is relatively high. The two markets driving high demands have been housing (people want to get out of dense areas) and auto industry (consumers are investing in a different means of commute, for safety and driving from further areas).  McAfee's IPO will be at $20 range. There is lot of news regarding the election and its impact on the stock market. However, I think we should invest regardless of that outcome and focus on finding a valuable company that we understand its dynamics, and go for a long term investment rather than just swing trade and hope/bet ...

Wednesday - Stimulus vs. iPhone 12 Analogy

  White House announced that both Republicans and Democrats are doing their best to come up with a stimulus package in 48 hours. However, major stock markets could start the day in their negatives due to economical concerns.  After a 62% increase in Netflix's share in 2020, they are facing subscriber growth challenge which dropped their stock price by 5% in pre-market.  PayPal will allow Crypto trading by next week. GM unveiled its 2022 off-roading electric truck for $112k. Google's response to the Justice Department's antitrust lawsuit: "deeply flawed," and isn't helping consumers of its products. "This lawsuit would do nothing to help consumers. On the contrary, it would artificially prop up lower-quality search alternatives, raise phone prices, and make it harder for people to get the search services they want to use". It worth it to remind ourselves how rich people are simply dumb; 50-cent said: “I don’t care Trump doesn’t like Black people, 62%...

Tuesday - Murkier Outlook Has Made Investors Bullish

 Today is Pelosi's deadline for Trump to pass the stimulus and that has pushed US futures higher.  Microsoft and SpaceX have joined to bring cloud to space. Nokia will build a Moon based cell network for NASA. $600 plus mobile market in China has split almost evenly between Huawei and Apple. Xiaomi falls third, far from the two giants.  Stocks to watch during this election time: APPN. Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Monday - Nothing can stop the market so far

  Pelosi set  Tuesday to be a deadline for stimulus deal. And she threatened that, if there is no deal, then there will be no Covid aid until after the election. Consumer spending is showing promising increase ahead of the holidays, although personal income is on decrease. All futures, oil, gold and Bitcoin are higher today. According to Bill Gates: “The fall is going to be worse than the summer.” “All the numbers are ticking up, and that was always a very good chance that as people go indoors and it’s colder, that we would see more transmission.” Uber and South Korea's SK Telecom announced joint venture for the purpose of flying cars. How long can China support the prop-up of the oil market? They bought a lot of oil when the price dropped in Mar. Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Friday - Is this the last rise before election?

A narrow stimulus is coming next week. US industerial productions were 0.6% lower in Sep. Futures are higher because of Pfizer vaccine timeline and Sep retail sales impresses with 1.9% gain.  Keep Smiling and stay charitable.

Thursday - Stimulus Hope Before Election is Dead

 Yesterday major indexes closed in negatives. Today, futures are under pressures. Investors are convinced that the boost in spending from the Fed will not be in effect until mid Nov, according to Steve Mnuchin. Although that sounds troubling, but there seem to be more into it. Outside of the tech bubble, earnings are questionable. Also, another 898k new jobless claims purred onto the market. Moderna got permission to test their anti-virus on candidates for fast track in Europe. There is hope that Netflix could grow another 21% in short term due to the dramatic change in the world. Uber is finding Lyft to be a challenger to its UberEat after they constructed a deal with GrubHub. City of Toronto has closed a deal with Local Motors to put Olli driverless shuttles in trial as early as Spring 2021. US presidential election's second debate was tossed because moderators had asked candidates to have it in a virtual mode which Trump refused. S&P is behaving very much like it was in 2009...

Wednesday - One last raise before the election

Main indexes finished slightly in the negatives yesterday however US futures have put some gain this morning. Goldman Sachs's third quarter earning blew Wall Street's expectations with a strong EPS and revenue.  The market seems to have room for one last jump higher before it starts an ugly correction starting before the election. However, bank of America's share dipped as lenders are still under pressure for lower rates. Walmart's Black Friday and Amazon's Prime day are pushing their stocks higher. Buying suggestions (long term hold): FVRR. Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Tuesday - Apple's Event Drives NASDAQ Today

While there was a nice rally in the major indexes yesterday mainly because of Apple's event and Amazon's surge, today, Ten year yield and Gold/Silver are lower. Bitcoin is up by 4%. Johnson & Johnson on Monday night paused its trial of a Covid vaccine, resulting in European stocks and US futures taking a hit. OPEC revised down world's economic growth for 2021 to 4.6% and reporting China to be the only country to experience growth; 2%. Europe will have the biggest contraction of all, 7.7%. And the Paris-based energy agency claims that Covid will have a permanent impact on Oil market. Pepsi is becoming a hot buy, being suggested by many sources especially because it's assumed that the election won't impact its trend. Google is planning to deploy vehicles without backup driver to the public in Arizona.  Delta revenu dropped 79%.  Central bank of China will start testing its digital currency in Shenzhen, dispersing $1.5M. BUY SUGGESTIONS: Pepsi, Pinterest Let me kno...

Friday - Trump cannot win without stimulus

US futures and global markets are raising towards their biggest weekly gain since Jul which is mainly  because of Trump's come back on stimulus trail. Almost 92% of crude output in the Mexican Golf are shut down due to Hurricane Delta, pushing the double bottomed market higher.  Square said, they have invested $50 million in Bitcoin which is about 1% of their assets. Gilead Sciences announced, they would have enough global supply of corona virus drug, remdesivir/Veklury, by end of Oct. Test results shows that, this drug can shorted the recovery by 5 days. Xilinx shares surged by more than 16%, after Advanced Micro Devices announced talks over acquiring it. GameStop entered a multi-year strategic partnership with Microsoft. GameStop will get Surface laptops in exchange for buying Office 365 and Teams. Keep smiling and stay charitable.

Thursday - Market Cannot Go Without Stimulus

 Equites are higher over the optimism that the stimulus deal may still be in play before the election. Major markets in the US went deeper into green during pre-market, including tech, gold, crude and Bitcoin. However, the number of jobless claims filed for the first time went up by 3k. Despite Trump's announcement regarding no more talks on stimulus until after the election, Pelosi is chasing a deal for airline industries which bumped their stocks by 3.5%.  Trump hails Regeneron's treatment cocktail as a cure. We are in a tough economic situation with a pandemic on our back in 2020. However, since 1928, there has been lots of bad situations happening. Wars, bubbles, natural disasters, financial crisis and etc; which has of course impacted the stock market and the economy. But the intresting common theme in all these events was the fact that people wanted a better life which included better services. This has been one of the important factors as a resilience towards a bullish ...

Wednesday - Trump is loosing the election

  Yesterday the market was up and down until Trump announced that he won't accept any stimulus package until after the election which resulted in a sell off; more than 1% in major indexes and around 2% in big tech companies. Today, Dow futures and Dollar are up. Gold is under pressure. Oil and Crypto are a bit lower. “I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business,” Trump said Tuesday in a tweet. Although the president is being very self centered and only focusing on winning the election, without considering the middle-class and those who have lost their jobs, the fact is that the economy recovery according to  Jerome Powell needs this stimulus ASAP. Since democrats are also pushing for it, we the investors, can be rest assured that it's coming no matter which one of these clowns win the election. Demo...

Tuesday - Risk On

US 10 and 30 year yield rose up to four month high. Oil rose 1% as hurricane hurts US. However US trade deficit rose to $67 billion, third highest level on record. The heads of federal reserve and European central bank will give a talk today (more stimulus).  We have  seen a V-shape recovery in the big tech industry after the pandemic hit the market in Mar. Besides that, past fours years have been great for investors with so many consecutive record highs. Earlier I pointed out the fact that, the stock market ain't the economy with an emphasis on the prosperous look-ahead for the market, however, the bubble created by the packages that the Fed has been printing, specially since early 2019, will have to come and bite soon. Not to mention, permanent job losses, weekly lay-offs, small businesses being crushed and the seemingly inevitable shift of economic power to China, are all reasons why we should trade with an extra caution, at least till the election results are out.  Wi...

Monday - Trumps' Recovery Lifts The Market

Investors fear over Trump's health are easing while stimulus hope lifts Dow futures and European stocks.  Crud is higher on the Saudi news targeting $50. However, US permanent job losses continue to rise. Chevron acquires Nobel Energy for $5 billion. Trump is ready to go back to work after being treated with dexamethasone, Gilead Sciences and Regeneron. WHO fears, 1 out of 10 people may have been infected by Covid. China claims, US bans and India's restrictions on Chinese apps violates WTO regulation. Bitcoin moves slightly higher as SEC chairman praises blockchain. Although Tesla's delivery was higher, stocked tumbled 5%. Investors are also positioning for the possibility of a Democratic sweep in November's election, and the associated impact that could have on the U.S. deficit. While the 10-year/30-year curve has steepened over 30 basis points so far this year, it remains below the near 81 basis points level it hit in June. Let me know what you think. Keep smiling and...

Last Week in 2 Minutes

  Last week we the market start picking up until Fri when Trump's Covid positive test hit the news.  US companies added 749k payrolls.  Jobless claim for the last week of Sep reports 837k in US. This was a decreased based on a 4-week moving average.  Fourth quarter growth however could be a positive driver for the market. Microsoft unveils budget Surface. They also partnered with Datadog. Pepsi reported strong earnings.  Tesla's sale rose 44% from a year ago as global demand increased; planning to enter Indian market. Amazon announced, 20k of its employees tested positive for Covid. Walmart sold its British chain Asda for $8.8 billion. Greenbriar investing $500 million in Uber's logistic units.  Japanese computer memory producer Kioxia Holdings Corporation's plans to launch an initial public offering (IPO) will be rescheduled for a later date amid rising hostilities in the tech sector between China and the United States. The firm, reputedly the second-large...

Friday - Trump Tests + for Covid

Trump and Melania tested positive for Covid. After yesterdays 150 points gain on Nasdaq; today, futures, Gold, Crude and Bitcoin fell under pressure. However, 661k new jobs were added in Sep decreasing the unemployment rate from 8.2% to 7.9%.  Tesla's sale rose 44% from a year ago as global demand increased; planning to enter Indian market. Amazon announced, 20k of its employees tested positive for Covid. Walmart sold its British chain Asda for $8.8 billion. Greenbriar investing $500 million in Uber's logistic units.  Airlines, cruise lines and oil are the major industries hit after Trump's Covid results were reported.  I believe there was a request to have Trump and Biden to take Covid test prior to their first debate (Trump was pushing the idea for Biden to take the test). The timing of this result looks and feel odd to me. Perhaps they knew the results on the debate night and decided to announce it today (or maybe even way earlier, like when Trump announced the vaccine...

Thursday - Q4 Begins

Major index put a nice gain yesterday. Futures look positive this morning. Gold and Silver gained but crude is still smoothly going lower, however US reported shrank stockpile which can drive the market higher today. Although Bitcoin has raised in past few days, but Sep was the biggest monthly percentage decline since March; fell by 7%. Stocks could rise today as the month of Oct and Q4 begins. Jobless claim for the last week of Sep reports 837k in US. This was a decreased based on a 4-week moving average.  Microsoft unveils budget Surface. They also partnered with Datadog. Pepsi reported strong earnings. DannyVena (nCino) is a software as a service that manages the entire loan life cycle for the banks. They have 1100 customers where Bank of America, Barclay and TD are included. An IPO to watch. CDC extended ban on cruise industry. This might be the low one would want to hope onto.  Airlines are pushing for the second bailout from the government by keeping the 32000 layoffs on...